History Repeats: Why AI Won’t “End” Filmmaking, Just Evolve It.

 Where to start! What about here. A 19-year-old in his bedroom and a synthesiser did what a group of musicians would accomplish. He wrote a trailblazing track called 19. It would be the end of music as we know it.

The automobile wiped away the equine industry before figures rose again in the 1950s. People, we come to realise, also preferred horses.

Video journalism and mobile journalism would obliterate traditional news gathering. It still hasn’t. I have got invoices for that being one of the UK pioneers.

Netflix vs Blockbuster is the corporate poster person for blunders of a monumental scale. This series of blunders is worth reading. It wasn’t that simple as a packaged story.

3D TVs will revolutionise the market. They didn’t then the industry found VR. That would do it. No! AR…

We’d rather have definitive answers rather than one’s that hedge their forecast. That’s the difference between Foxes and Hedgehogs (the philosophical kind) in predicting the future. In truth, TV punditry and commentators thrive on being Hedgehogs.

Trying to predict today is way hard enough. Based on yesterday that’s academia. Looking to tomorrow that’s the artist at work — those rare beings. Many subscribe, but few are chosen.

Who knew that cubism would foretell quantum physics? Everywhere all at once and perspective matters.

So yes AI will disrupt filmmaking. The traditional filmmaking industry will get a shock, adapt and evolve. Paul and Pauline Hardcastle will make their incredible AI film. It will be picked up by industry. The juggernaut will envelope them.

The other Paul and Paulines will create the parallel industry- something we’ve come to witness in the last twenty years from YouTube/ Social Media. We’ll eulogise them, fete them. Too right! Film marketing will go on hyperdrive.

Then the market will reconfigure and settle into a groove. Then we’ll await the next best thing, Presence Artificial Reality. You’re practically in your room in a film.

So my two pence. Yep get the goldrush going, before prospectors make their claims. Things change, yeah, and stay the same. Plus ca Change.

But why be a killjoy. That doesn’t sell. So I guess whatever works eh?

So brace yourself. AI is Here. Filmmaking’s Not Dying, It’s Just re-engineering itself for the next wave.

My AI film blending AI and in-camera.

And this is me, for context!

Why do newspapers do video. Answer will surprise you

Organisational behavioural experts refer to it as the five monkeys parable. This week yields a globally classic case study for reference with events in the US and 47, as well as this unassuming photo that commemorates 20 years which offers its own story within the parable.

Qu. Why do newspapers do video?
Ans. below prompted by an article I wrote on Medium with this comment:

"This was fascinating. Over here in America, I had no idea this was happening, although I'm a journalist and follow media trends. It sounds alarming and I appreciate your good overview of why".

Firstly, to events this week in the US. Was is strategy or simply the bond market tanking that caused a U-turn? It's the journalists job to probe and seek answers that are evidentiary compelling. That's what outfits like Channel 4 News (my old parish) have been doing superbly this week and many years beyond by the way.

There's presently a blurred line between journalism and journalism as PR spin that we're all poorer for. The latter's reporting feeds into our social media and is conveniently adopted. Over time the truth becomes erased.

Here's the five monkeys parable (and there are versions). Five monkeys are placed in a cage with bananas hanging from the top and a ladder. The monkeys quickly see how climbing the ladder gets them their prize, but anytime one monkey climbs, it and the rest get drenched in water. Then one of the five monkeys is removed and replaced with a new one. The new monkey seeing the bananas makes its move. But by barely touching the ladder it is set upon by the others for fear of being drenched.

The swapping of monkeys continues. This time all a new monkey has to do is flinch and the others knowing what's coming punish the monkey. Over time all the monkeys are replaced and none of them makes any attempt to grab a banana. But something strange has now taken place. No one quite knows why no one's moving, and here's where you can invent your own reasons.

Generations to come may look back on 2025 seeing crafted answers - some created by journalists, but whose real interpretation is lost in a field of ignorance and unknowing.

Qu. Why do newspapers do video?
1. Because they're innovative?
2. Because it's natural
3. Because they can

The photo is from 2007, a training course for UK newspaper journalists put on by the UK Press Association. In 2006 they asked me if it was possible to swiftly train newspaper journalists to become videojournalists. Why?

Because their businesses were imperil as the BBC contemplated setting up hyperlocal stations around the country that would impact their revenue model. They had to move fast to establish their video brands.

Footnote: They did, but PA and I had a strategy, which would make them different which is for another post.

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